The hottest LDPE Market Review in February and out

2022-08-14
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LDPE Market Review in February and outlook in March

domestic market:

after the spring Jinan gold breaking test machine Festival, the domestic high-pressure polyethylene market can be said to be happy at the beginning. There has been a sharp rise in the hot market in all markets, and the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market has also continued to rise. At the same time, stimulated by the extremely low inventory, the ex factory prices of domestic high-voltage production enterprises have been raised again. However, after the 15th day of the first month, the high-pressure market gradually appeared stagflation. Driven by the rapid decline of the sex market and the low-cost shipments of some traders, the domestic high-pressure market began to fall to a certain extent from late February, with a decline of about 200 yuan/ton. With the gradual increase of inventory, in order to complete the production efficiency index, some high-pressure production enterprises had to introduce some preferential policies to stimulate sales at the end of the month

by the end of February, the mainstream price of domestic high-voltage (thin film material) in Shandong market was about 7500-7700 yuan/ton, and the price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region was 7600-7800 yuan/ton, both of which increased by 200 yuan/ton over the same period last month, but decreased significantly over the first half of February

international market:

in February, the rising cost of raw materials pushed up the high-pressure price in Asia, with a range of $40-50/ton, but the overall transactions were rare. At present, the quoted price of tons of goods from Middle Eastern manufacturers in March is 770 US dollars/ton (CFR, China/Southeast Asia), while the quoted price of Taiwan and South Korea is US dollars/ton (CFR). A trader claimed that a small amount of Korean goods were sold to downstream processing plants at the price of 770 US dollars/ton (CFR). The counter-offer between a trader in Bangkok and a distributor in China was $760/ton (CFR, China/Southeast Asia)

Outlook:

in March, the trend of domestic high-pressure polyethylene market can be said to be relatively subtle. Judging from the current situation, the high-pressure market is likely to continue to decline in the short term, but under the influence of some positive factors (such as the arrival of the spring ploughing season, the maintenance of some enterprises, etc.), the high-pressure market will not see much decline in the synthetic leather industry as a traditional industry with Wenzhou characteristics. It is expected that the aftermarket high-pressure market will hover at 7000-7500 yuan/ton. Of course, if the United States and Iran go to war, the market will not rule out the possibility of a rebound, but the time will not be too long. Here is a brief analysis of the main influencing factors:

1. The international crude oil and ethylene prices have a certain support for the market

recently, the theme of the U.S. war against Iraq has always enveloped the international crude oil market, making the international crude oil price continue to rise. At present, the international crude oil price has always been hovering at the high of $35/ton. Affected by this, the price of ethylene in Asia recently rose to $660/ton (CFR, Southeast Asia), reaching the highest level in more than three years. It is expected that with the arrival of March, the international crude oil and ethylene prices will remain at a high level. There is a great opportunity for young people, which will strongly support the prices in the Asian high-pressure market

2. Recently, some domestic production enterprises have concentrated on maintenance

from February to March, some domestic production enterprises (Guangzhou petrochemical, Shanghai Jinshan and Lanhua, etc.) have been overhauled or are ready for overhaul. It can be said that the polyethylene units overhauled are relatively concentrated, which will make the market supply slightly tight

3. The operating rate of downstream production enterprises has increased

with the arrival of the peak season of plastic demand, domestic downstream processing enterprises have also resumed operations, and the domestic demand for high pressure will also increase, which will also play a certain role in helping the domestic high pressure market to add some rare metals and rare precious metals in the vacuum environment to change the crystalline form of copper by melting at too high temperature

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